After taking the 2024-25 canola supply-demand sheet into the red in May, Agriculture Canada has gone even further in June in order to boost exports.
In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates released late Friday, Ag Canada dropped its canola feed, waste and dockage number to a -959,000 tonnes, from –609,000 last month. That adjustment, along with a 150,000-tonne reduction in the old-crop ending stocks estimate to 1.15 million, allowed the government to raise its export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 9 million, 35% higher than last year and 11% above the five-year average.
The negative dockage figure is a temporary fix, giving Statistics Canada an opportunity to revise its 2024 canola production up from the current 17.845 million tonnes, thus boosting the total supply. Ag Canada could also raise its import forecast from 150,000 tonnes to further augment the supply side.
Market watchers and analysts have long suspected Statistics Canada underestimated the size of the 2024 canola crop, given the red-hot pace of exports and domestic use.
“At the time of writing, canola exports reported by the Canadian Grain Commission are outpacing last year by 60% with steady producer deliveries, indicating there is still inventory being moved off-farm,” Ag Canada said in its Friday report.
At the current estimated level of 1.15 million tonnes, 2024-25 canola ending stocks would be down 58% from the previous year’s 2.748 million and a 12-year low.
With this month’s smaller old-crop carryover, Ag Canada also trimmed its 2025-26 canola ending stocks estimate, dropping it 150,000 tonnes to 1.85 million.
Projected new-crop canola production, at 18 million tonnes, exports (6 million), and crush (11 million) were all left steady from last month. Canola planted area for this year is estimated at 21.6 million acres, down 1.7% from a year earlier, although Statistics Canada will release an updated acreage report on Friday.
Ag Canada raised its 2024-25 average canola price forecast by $5 from May to $680/tonne, still below the previous year’s $715. The 2025-26 price outlook was unchanged from last month at $700.
