Yield projections contained in the Alberta government’s last crop report of the year suggest some downgrades are likely when Statistics Canada releases its final 2024 crop production report in December.
With the Alberta harvest now essentially complete, Friday’s crop report pegged this year’s average provincial canola yield at just 33.3 bu/acre. That is a major 5 bu or 13% below the model-based estimate released in StatsCan’s September crop report. If accurate, it would also be the lowest Alberta canola yield since the 2021 drought year at 28.9 bu/acre.
The province’s spring wheat yield estimate, at 44.7 bu/acre, was also well below the September StatsCan estimate of 52 bu, while the average expected barley yield of 57.2 bu/acre was 3.2 bu or 5.2% below the StatsCan forecast. The province’s oat yield estimate of 67.9 bu/acre was 7.8 bu or 10.3% below the StatsCan number, while the province’s dry pea yield estimate of 35.3 bu/acre was closer to StatsCan’s 36 bu.
StatsCan’s September estimates were based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, reflecting conditions as of the end of August. The Alberta yield estimates more closely reflect actual harvest results. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released Dec. 5, will be based on a survey of farmers.
On a collective basis, the Alberta crop report estimated the average yield of major crops (spring wheat, oats, barley, canola, and peas) at almost 3% below the five-year average. The South, North West, and Peace Regions are estimating yields at 12.4%, 2.8%, and 5.6% above their five-year averages, respectively. On the other hand, North East yields are estimated 10.6% below average, while Central Region yields are estimated 16.4% below.
As crop reporting for the 2024 season concludes, provincial surface soil moisture was rated at 45% good to excellent as of Tuesday, unchanged from the previous week and below the five- and 10-year averages of 48% and 59% good to excellent.
Fall seeded crops in Alberta were rated 53% good to excellent as of Tuesday, versus the five-year average of 64% and the 10-year average of 69%.
