A much larger than expected US soybean crop appears to be on the way for this year.
The USDA’s regular monthly supply-demand update on Monday raised expected American soy production by 154 million bu from last month to 4.589 billion bu, up 10% on the year and above the average pre-report trade guess of 4.469 billion.
Much of the production hike was due to a major 1-million acre increase in expected harvested area to 86.3 million – compared to 82.4 million in 2023 - but the government’s first survey-based estimate of the season also turned up an average yield of 53.2 bu/acre, an increase of 1.2 bu from July and above last year’s 50.6 bu.
With The USDA only partially offsetting the larger crop with a 25-million bu increase in the export forecast to 1.850 billion, 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks are now pegged at 560 million bu, up 125 million from July and compared to 345 million a year earlier and the average trade guess of 465 million.
Soybean futures were trading 21-23 cents/bu lower following the report’s noon hour ET release.
At 66 bu/acre, the largest production state of Illinois is forecast to see this year’s highest average yield, up 3 bu from 2023. The average expected Indiana yield is up 1 bu from 2023 at 62 bu/acre, while Iowa is up 3 bu at 61 bu/acre. Michigan is also forecast to see a 3-bu increase from last year at 49 bu/acre, with Ohio up 1 bu at 59 bu/acre. The average North Dakota yield is projected at 36 bu/acre, up slightly from 35.5 bu in 2023.
With production and ending stocks rising, the USDA slashed its 2024-25 average soybean price forecast by 30 cents from last month to $10.80/bu, versus $12.50 for the 2023-24 marketing year. The soybean meal price forecast was lowered as well, down $10 at $320/short ton. The soybean oil price forecast was unchanged at 42 cents/lb.
Thanks mostly to the larger US crop, global 2024-25 soybean production is raised 6.9 million tonnes this month to 428.7 million, way up from 395.12 million in 2023-24.
Argentina soybean production for 2023-24 is estimated at 49 million tonnes, down 500,000 from the July estimate, while Brazil was held steady at 153 million. For 2024-25, the countries are projected to produce 51 million and 169 million tonnes, respectively.
At 109 million tonnes, China soybean imports for 2024-25 are unchanged from last month and up 1 million from 2023-24.
Global soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are pegged at 134.3 million tonnes this month, up from 127.76 million in July and above 112.36 million in 2023-24.
