IGC Cuts World Corn Production Estimate Amid US Troubles

Thanks partly to declining US prospects, the International Grains Council has cut its estimate of 2020-21 global corn production.

In its latest monthly Grain Market Report released Thursday, the IGC cut its forecast for world corn output by 6 million tonnes from last month, citing reductions for the US, China and the EU, but increases for Argentina and Brazil. However, at an estimated 1.16 billion tonnes, world corn production is still seen up 39 million tonnes from the previous year and at a new all-time high.

The IGC at least partly offset this month’s lower corn production estimate by trimming expected consumption by 2 million tonnes, reflecting a downgrade in expected US industrial use.

World corn ending stocks are seen at 285 million tonnes this month, down from 288 million in August and below the 300 million estimated for the 2019-20 crop year.

In its latest monthly supply-demand update, released Sep. 11, the USDA lowered its estimate of this year’s American corn crop by 2% from August to 14.9 billion bu (378.5 million tonnes), mainly due to drought and storm damage in the western Corn Belt.

As for wheat, the IGC held its 2020-21 global production estimate mostly steady from last month at 763 million tonnes (up 1 million from 2019-20), with upward revisions for Russia and Australia balanced by cuts for Argentina and Canada. Expected global wheat consumption and ending stocks for 2020-21 were both left unchanged from August at 749 million and 294 million tonnes, respectively.

The outlook for total world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2020/21 was lowered 3 million tonnes this month to 2.227 billion, with the reduction in the corn outlook partly offset by upward revisions for barley and oats. With a reduction in projected consumption to help cushion the lower production estimate, total grains ending stocks are forecast this month at 629 million tonnes, down 1 million from August but still up from 622 million in 2019-20.

Estimated world soybean production for 2020-21 was left steady from August at 373 million tonnes – way up from 338 million a year earlier – but an increase in expected consumption helped to lower projected ending stocks by 2 million tonnes to 50 million, still up from 47 million in 2019-20.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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