The USDA is projecting larger U.S. wheat exports in 2019-20, but an increase in supplies means higher ending stocks regardless.
In updated supply-demand estimates on Monday, the USDA pegged new-crop wheat exports at 975 million bu, up 25 million bu from its July estimate, based on lower exportable supplies from key competitors, notably the EU, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Additionally, the USDA raised estimated new-crop feed and residual use by 20 million bu from July to 170 million on greater wheat supplies and more competitive prices.
At the same time, however, the USDA pegged total nationwide wheat production for this year at 1.98 billion bu, up 59 million bu from the government’s July estimate of 1.921 billion and 5% above a year earlier.
With supplies rising more than demand – and a small reduction in expected food use for 2019-20 – forecasted 2019-20 U.S. all wheat ending stocks were increased 14 million bu from last month to 1.014 billion bu, down only 5% from a year earlier and still historically heavy.
Based on Aug. 1 conditions, the average all wheat yield is seen at 51.6 bu/acre, up 1.6 bu from the July forecast, and up 4 bu from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 38.4 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 3% from 2018.
Winter wheat output is seen at 1.33 billion bu, up 3% from July and up 12% from 2018. The average winter wheat yield is estimated at 53.2 bu/acre, up 1.4 bu from last month, and up 5.3 bu from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 24.9 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 1% from 2018.
This year’s American spring wheat crop is pegged at 597 million bu, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 4% from 2018. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, spring wheat yields are expected to average 49.2 bu/acre, up 2 bu from the previous forecast, and up 0.9 bu from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 12.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 6% from 2018.
In the primary production state of North Dakota, the average spring wheat yield is estimated at 50 bu/acre, up from 47 bu in July and 49 bu a year earlier.
Meanwhile, U.S. durum output is estimated at 57.3 million bu, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 26% from 2018 due to a substantial reduction in planted and harvested area. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, durum yields are expected to average 42.3 bu/acre, down 0.6 bu from July, but up 3 bu from 2018. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 1.36 million acres, a drop of 31% from 2018.
At 42 bu/acre, the average estimated North Dakota durum yield is up 4 bu from July and above 39.5 bu last year.
Global wheat production for 2019-20 is estimated at 768.07 million tonnes this month, down from 771.46 million in July but well above the 2018 global crop of 730.55 million. New-crop world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 285.40 million tonnes, versus 286.46 million last month and 275.49 million in 2018-19.
The U.S. season-average farm price for wheat is lowered 20 cents/bu to $5 this month on lower U.S. corn prices, and reduced wheat price expectations for the remainder of the market year.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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