US farmers still believe President Donald Trump’s trade wars will benefit them in the long run, even if there’s pain in the meantime.
Released Tuesday, the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer - which is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the country – showed 70% of those polled believe the increased use of tariffs will eventually strengthen the US agricultural economy.
However, more than half of those surveyed also expect to take a hit as Trump tries to bend world trade to better favour the US. For example, 56% of respondents to the April survey said they think the US tariff policy will have either a negative or very negative impact on their farm’s income in 2025.
In a related question, just over half (53%) of producers said they expect the increase in tariffs on imports to make it more difficult to obtain inputs from their suppliers this year. Producers who expect some difficulty in obtaining inputs pointed to three main areas of concern: fertilizer, parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals.
Overall, the Purdue-CME barometer showed an 8-point improvement in farmer sentiment in April to a reading of 148.
“Somewhat surprisingly, this month’s improvement in farmer sentiment occurred despite ongoing trade disputes with many of US agriculture’s largest trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China,” the barometer said. “However, producers responding to the April survey overwhelmingly reported that they expect the increased use of tariffs by the US to prove beneficial to the US agricultural economy in the long run.”
The survey for the barometer was conducted April 14-21.
In April, Trump imposed a 145% tariff on US imports of Chinese goods, a move that was met by a 125% retaliatory import duty on all American exports into China. That includes agricultural products, including soybeans. Last year, China bought an estimated $12.8 billion worth of American soybeans, so the stakes in that battle are especially are high.
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade fight with Canada includes the fact that any US imports of Canadian potash not compliant with the US-Canada-Mexico trade agreement are subject to a 10% tariff.
