November soybean futures have slumped to four-year lows, with Monday’s USDA supply-demand report likely to continue to keep the pressure on the downtrodden market.
As the chart below shows, the November contract has drifted mainly lower since the latter part of May, dragged down by good growing weather in the American Midwest and some of the best weekly crop condition ratings for soybeans since 2020. However, the descent has picked up speed over the past couple of days, after Monday’s USDA report – which contained the season’s first survey-based estimates – raised the average expected yield, production, and ending stocks from last month and above trade expectations.
At 560 million bu, estimated 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks were revised up 125 million bu from July and are now 62% above the 2023-24 estimate of 345 million. Monday’s increase in ending stocks also marked the largest July to August increase since 2020, when estimated ending stocks jumped to 610 million bu from 425 million, an increase of 185 million bu.
Soybean futures posted double-digit losses on Monday and were trading about 19-20 cents/bu lower again at noon on Tuesday, with the November contract at $9.66.
November soybeans: Source – Barchart
