The November AAFC Outlook for Principal Field Crops, released late Tuesday, did not contain any material changes compared to last month. This is not a huge surprise, as Statistics Canada is expected to release updated yield and production estimates on December 4. That could set the stage for adjustments by AAFC in its next update, due on December 15.
Below is a recap of key data released in the November update.
Durum Wheat: The total supply for 2023-24 is forecasted at 4.5 million tonnes, down 29% from 2022, with production in the Prairies notably affected by dry weather. The quality and protein content are high, with over 83% of Canadian Western Amber Durum rated in the top two grades. The spot price for CWAD 1, 13% protein in Saskatchewan, is forecast at $475/tonne.
Wheat (Excluding Durum): The total wheat supply is forecasted at 29.1 million tonnes, down 8% compared to 2022. Production is just under 25.8 million tonnes due to lower yields across the Prairies. The quality of Canadian Western Red Spring wheat remains excellent.
Coarse Grains
Barley: Estimated production is 7.84 million tonnes, a 21% decrease from the previous year. The total supply for 2023-24 is 8.8 million tonnes. Quality is generally good, with significant portions grading as malt in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Corn: Canadian corn production is estimated at 14.9 million tonnes, an increase of 3% from last year. The total supply is projected at 19.4 million tonnes, with exports expected to decline but remain above average.
Oats
Canadian oat production is estimated at 2.44 million tonnes, significantly below last year and the five-year average. The total supply is projected at 3.74 million tonnes, with a notable decline in total demand and carry-out stocks.
Oilseeds
Canola: Production is estimated at 17.4 million tonnes, down 7% from last year. Total domestic use is down 4%, with exports scaled back to 7.7 million tonnes.
Soybeans: Production is estimated at 6.7 million tonnes, slightly up from last year. Exports are forecast to increase by 14% from 2022-23.
Pulse and Special Crops
Dry Peas: Production is estimated to fall by 34% to 2.3 million tonnes, with significant decreases in yellow and green pea production.
Lentils: Production is nearly 0.8 million tonnes lower, a 33% decrease from last year, with red lentils seeing a sharp fall.
Dry Beans: Production decreased by 12% to 277 thousand tonnes, with declines in production in Ontario and Manitoba.
Chickpeas: Production is estimated slightly above last year at 134 thousand tonnes.
Mustard Seed: Production is estimated to have risen by 6 thousand tonnes, with increases in yellow, brown, and oriental types.
Canary Seed: Production is estimated to fall by 22% to 124 thousand tonnes.
Sunflower Seed: Estimated production has fallen to 78 thousand tonnes due to lower harvested area and yields.
