Agriculture Canada has raised its 2026-27 canola ending stocks forecast from August amid a larger old-crop carry-in and an upgraded production estimate.
Released late Friday afternoon, Ag Canada’s September supply-demand outlook pegs the 2026-27 canola carryout at 1.979 million tonnes, up from its August forecast of 1.504 million tonnes.
The increase partly reflects a higher 2025-26 ending stocks estimate of 1.9 million tonnes, versus 1.725 million last month. That upward revision follows Statistics Canada’s Sept. 9 grain stocks report, which showed larger nationwide canola inventories as of July 31. The production side was also revised higher following StatsCan’s Sept. 16 crop production report, which increased estimates for both the 2025 and 2026 crops.
Ag Canada now puts 2026 canola production at 22.051 million tonnes, up from 21.6 million in August.
Combined with the larger carry-in and 130,000 tonnes of imports, the total 2026-27 canola supply is now forecast at 24.08 million, up from 23.455 million last month and slightly above last year. Ag Canada said that, if realized, it would be the second-largest supply on record behind 2019-20.
On the demand side, Ag Canada increased its domestic use outlook. Food and industrial use, which is dominated by crushing, was raised by 200,000 tonnes from August to a record 13.9 million. Total domestic use is now projected at 14.401 million tonnes, compared with 13.951 million in August and up about 10% from 2025-26.
With more canola expected to remain in domestic processing channels, the export forecast was cut to 7.7 million tonnes from 8 million last month. That would be down 14% from 2025-26, although still slightly above the five-year average.
Ag Canada also raised its projected average No. 1 canola price, Track Vancouver, to $775/tonne from $720 in August. That would be about 9% above the 2025-26 average of $711.
Key variables ahead include Prairie harvest conditions and quality, canola oil and meal demand, geopolitical volatility and any changes to trade policy affecting Canadian canola and its byproducts, Ag Canada said.
