Agriculture Canada has reduced its forecast for Canadian durum ending stocks in 2026-27 amid stronger-than-expected exports, while raising its average price outlook.
In its October supply-demand update released Tuesday, Ag Canada lowered projected durum ending stocks by 150,000 tonnes from September to 1.35 million, reflecting an upward revision in expected exports, partially offset by lower anticipated domestic use.
Despite the reduction, ending stocks are still projected above the 1.102 million tonnes carried out of 2025-26 and the 512,000 tonnes remaining at the end of 2024-25.
Ag Canada increased its 2026-27 durum export forecast by 250,000 tonnes to 5.3 million, down 9% from last year's record but 15% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, expected domestic feed, waste and dockage use was reduced by 100,000 tonnes to 433,000 tonnes, partly offsetting the impact of higher exports on ending stocks.
Canadian durum exports have started the crop year strongly, with 787,000 tonnes moving through the licensed elevator system by the end of September, more than double the 359,000 tonnes shipped during the same period last year, Ag Canada said in its commentary. August exports alone reached 421,000 tonnes, up 210% from a year earlier, with Morocco and Italy accounting for the largest shares.
However, Ag Canada cautioned it remains uncertain whether that pace can be maintained as new-crop supplies enter the handling system.
Meanwhile, the department raised its average durum price forecast by $10 from September to $290/tonne, citing strong demand, export movement. and deferred pricing into winter.
Canadian durum production remains estimated at 6.415 million tonnes, with total supplies projected at 7.825 million, down 4% from last year but 26% above the five-year average.
Crop quality could become increasingly important to prices, particularly as larger domestic harvests reduce import requirements in traditional markets. Ag Canada said.
The International Grains Council forecasts record global durum production of 38.9 million tonnes in 2026-27, up 2%, while world trade is expected to decline 11%. Demand for higher-protein durum for blending purposes is nevertheless expected to remain relatively strong.
