Agriculture Canada has raised its 2026-27 durum ending stocks estimate, while its outlook for wheat (excl durum) was held steady from August despite revisions to production, carry-in supplies, and domestic use.
Released on Friday, the department’s September supply-demand estimates incorporate Statistics Canada’s Sept. 9 grain stocks report, which showed stocks as of July 31, along with StatsCan’s September crop production estimates.
For durum, Ag Canada now projects 2026-27 ending stocks at 1.5 million tonnes, up from 1.2 million in August and 36% above the revised 2025-26 level of 1.1 million.
The increase comes despite a stronger export forecast. Durum exports were raised to 5.05 million tonnes from 4.92 million last month, while production was increased to 6.42 million tonnes from 6.28 million.
Total durum supply was lifted sharply to 7.52 million tonnes from 6.92 million, partly reflecting the higher old-crop carry-in shown in StatsCan’s grain stocks report. Domestic use was also raised to 974,000 tonnes from 802,000, largely due to higher expected feed and residual disappearance.
Ag Canada said 2026-27 durum exports are still expected to fall 14% from 2025-26 as improved North African harvests reduce import needs. However, early demand has been strong, with Canadian Grain Commission data showing 410,000 tonnes exported through licensed elevators during the first month of the crop year, versus 150,000 a year earlier.
For wheat (excl durum), 2026-27 ending stocks remain forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, unchanged from August.
Production was trimmed to 29.71 million tonnes from 30 million, but a larger 2025-26 carry-in lifted total supply slightly to 35.35 million. Exports were unchanged at 23.45 million tonnes, while domestic use edged higher to 7.6 million from 7.58 million.
Ag Canada said reduced Black Sea exportable supplies could create additional opportunities for Canadian high-protein spring wheat, particularly for blending. CGC data show wheat exports at 2.5 million tonnes so far this crop year, up 70% from the same period last year, although some of that movement likely represents old-crop supplies.
The average expected 2026-27 durum price was raised $10 from August to $280, close to the 2025-26 average of $282. The average wheat (excl durum) prices was also bumped $10 higher from last month to $310, compared to $269 a year earlier.
