Agriculture Canada has tightened its new-crop canola ending stocks estimate from last month on higher expected demand.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday pegged 2026-27 canola ending stocks at 1.064 tonnes, down from the March estimate of 1.46 million and well below the five-year average of 2.2 million. If accurate, new-crop ending stocks would be 61.5% below the slightly upwardly revised 2025-26 ending stocks projection of 2.765 million and down from 1.597 million in 2024-25.
Thos month’s reduction in ending stocks is due to an upward revision in the 2026-27 export forecast, which rises 100,000 tonnes from last month to 7.8 million – still below 8.2 million a year earlier. The 2026-27 crush estimate was revised higher from last month as well, up 500,000 to a new record high of 13 million. Amid new Prairie processing capacity coming online, the crush estimate is 8% above the previous year and 23% above the average.
A small portion of the higher demand was offset by a minor reduction in feed, waste and dockage, which fell to just 150,000 tonnes from 349,000 in March.
On the old-crop side, the 2025 Canadian canola crop is now seen at 21.809 million tonnes, up 5,000 tonnes from March due to slightly higher planted and harvest area estimates. With the increase in production – and no changes in demand - Ag Canada raised its 2025-26 canola ending stocks forecast by an identical amount.
Ag Canada raised its average expected 2025-26 canola price estimate by $10/tonne from last month to $685 on support from rising crude oil and veg-oil prices. That is slightly higher than last year’s $678 but still considerably below the five-year average of $811.
The average expected new-crop canola price was bumped $5 higher to $655.
