Agriculture Canada has lowered its old- and new-crop canola ending stocks estimates from last month amid rising demand projections.
In a monthly supply-demand update released Monday, Ag Canada trimmed its 2024-25 canola ending stocks estimate by 50,000 tonnes from June to 1.1 million, a 12-year low. Meanwhile, forecasted 2025-26 stocks were slashed to an identical 1.1 million tonnes from the previous month’s 1.85 million.
Ag Canada’s latest supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s June acreage report, which estimated 2025 Canadian canola planted area at 21.457 million acres, down less than 200,000 from the federal agency’s first new-crop acreage report in March and 2.5% below a year earlier.
As part of that report, StatsCan also took the opportunity to retroactively revise its 2024 production estimate higher, up to 19.184 million tonnes from the previous projection of 17.845 million. The 2023 crop was bumped higher as well, to 19.463 million tonnes from 19.192 million.
The larger production estimates allowed Agriculture Canada to remedy the negative 2024-25 feed, waste and dockage numbers it was forced to use in its May and June supply-demand updates due to much stronger-than-expected export and crush demand. The additional supply also allowed Ag Canada to raise its 2024-25 export forecast by 500,000 tonnes from June to 9.5 million - 42% higher than last year and 17% above the five-year average.
For the 2025-26 crop year, the slightly lower 2025 canola planted area estimate contained in the June acreage report means Ag Canada is now forecasting new-crop production at 17.8 million tonnes, down 200,000 from June and potentially the smallest crop since 2014, excluding the 2021 drought-hit crop of 14.248 million.
With the drop in production and this month’s slightly smaller carryin from the 2024-25 crop year, the total new-crop canola supply is estimated at just 19 million tonnes, down from 22.355 million the previous year and 21.597 million in 2023-24. Ag Canada left its 2025 average canola yield estimate little changed from June at 37.1 bu/acre, versus 38.7 bu last year and potentially also the lowest since 2014, excluding the drought year.
On the demand side, Ag Canada left its 2025-26 canola export forecast steady from June at 6 million tonnes – a four-year low - but raised the crush to 11.5 million, up 500,000 and matching the previous year.
“New-crop canola enters a market of heightened uncertainty as a result of the current policy environment,” Ag Canada said, noting tariff and trade unknowns, as well as questions around renewable fuel mandates. “However, indicators suggest sustained demand for canola.”
Ag Canada forecast the 2025-26 average canola price at $725/tonne this month, up $25 from June and $50 above the estimated 2024-25 average.
