Canada’s wheat production will fall from a year ago as both harvested area and average yields decline, according to Statistics Canada’s first production estimate for 2026.
Statistics Canada on Wednesday estimated 2026 national all-wheat production at 36.122 million tonnes, down 10.9% from the upwardly revised 2025 crop of 40.562 million tonnes. Despite the year-over-year decline, the projected crop would remain historically large, exceeding production in every year since 2010 except 2013 and 2025. The estimate was close to Agriculture Canada's August supply-demand forecast of 36.271 million.
For 2025, the all wheat production estimate was bumped up from the previous view of 39.955 million.
The 2026 national average all wheat yield is forecast at 53.6 bu/acre, down 5.6% from the record 56.8 bu last year. The 2026 yield would nevertheless remain above the recent five-year average, reflecting generally favourable growing conditions through much of the growing season.
Lower acreage is also contributing to the smaller crop. Canadian farmers seeded 25.506 million acres of wheat this year, down from 27.032 million acres in 2025, while harvested area is projected at 24.762 million acres, a 5.6% decline from 26.231 million acres.
As with canola, the final size of the Western Canadian crop remains uncertain following heavy rainfall and persistent harvest delays across the Prairies. StatsCan’s final 2026 production estimates will be based on a farmer survey – versus today’s model-based projections – and will be released in December.
The decline in 2026 national wheat production is led by spring wheat, with output forecast at 26.452 million tonnes, down 10.9% from 29.672 million tonnes last year. The average spring wheat yield is projected at 55 bu/acre, down from 59.6, while harvested area falls to 17.68 million acres.
Durum production is estimated at 6.417 million tonnes, down 12.2% from the 2025 estimate of 7.305 million tonnes - which was revised up from 7.135 million previously. Yield is forecast at 41.3 bu/acre, compared with 41.9 last year, while harvested area drops to 5.706 million acres. Ag Canada had durum output for this year at 6.275 million.
Saskatchewan wheat production is projected at 16.933 million tonnes, down 9.7% from 18.76 million tonnes, as average yield falls to 48.2 bu from 51.1 and harvested area declines to 12.919 million acres.
In Alberta, production is forecast at 10.946 million tonnes, down 10.9% from 12.284 million. The average yield is expected to fall to 54.5 bu from 57, with harvested area declining to 7.382 million acres.
Manitoba all wheat production for 2026 is projected at 4.937 million tonnes, down 16.8% from 5.934 million, as yield falls to 60.5 bu from 66.4 and harvested area declines to 2.996 million acres.
For Ontario, total wheat production is forecast at 2.784 million tonnes, down from 3.055 million tonnes in 2025, while the average yield slips to 92.8 bu acre from 94.8. Most of the crop is winter wheat, with remaining winter wheat production estimated at 2.687 million tonnes, down from 2.913 million last year, as the average yield falls to 94.7 bu from 97.4.
