Thanks to larger-than-expected 2025 crops, Agriculture Canada has raised its ending stocks estimates for both oats and barley from last month.
Updated supply-demand estimates released by Ag Canada on Wednesday pegged barley ending stocks at 1.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 from its November forecast and now above 1.249 million the previous year. If accurate, barley ending stocks would be the highest since the 2016-17 crop year.
Meanwhile, oat ending stocks for 2025-26 were revised up 250,000 tonnes from November to 750,000, up from 507,000 in 2024-25 and the highest since 2022-23.
Despite the heavier outlook, Ag Canada left its 2025-26 average price forecasts for both crops unchanged from last month at $270/tonne for barley and $305 for oats.
The higher ending stocks estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Dec. 4 crop production report. That report estimated this year’s Canadian barley crop at 9.725 million tonnes, up from the federal agency’s model-based September estimate of 8.228 million, while the oat crop was bumped up to 3.92 million tonnes from 3.37 million.
Ag Canada offset some of the larger barley supply by raising its export forecast by 400,000 tonnes from last month to 3.24 million, with domestic use rising to 6.284 million from 5.687 million.
Oat exports, at 2.65 million tonnes, are up from 2.42 million in November, while total expected domestic use increased to 1.046 million from 977,000.
