The supply-demand balance for old- and new-crop Canadian barley has tightened this month, while the outlook for wheat and oats is mixed compared to April.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates Tuesday, Agriculture Canada lowered its 2022-23 and 2023-24 barley ending stocks estimates, dropping them to 730,000 and 800,000 tonnes, respectively, from 900,000 and 1 million in April.
Much of the reduction in the old-crop barley ending stocks estimate can be attributed to heavier export forecast, which rises to 3.72 million tonnes from last month's 3.67 million. Total estimated domestic use is up about 100,000 tonnes this month as well, to 6.109 million tonnes. On the new-crop side, Ag Canada trimmed its barley production estimate to 9.54 million tonnes from 9.974 million, based on StatsCan’s May 9 acreage report and a smaller seeded area.
Ag Canada made no changes to its 2022-23 and 2023-24 barley price forecasts from last month, leaving them at $410 and $350/tonne.
For oats, Ag Canada held its old-crop ending stocks estimate steady from April at 1.25 million tonnes – way up from 333,000 the previous year – but raised its new-crop stocks estimate by 300,000 tonnes to 1 million, mostly due to a smaller export forecast and lower domestic use. The May production estimate of 3.642 million tonnes was little changed from last month.
The old-crop oat price forecast is down $10 from last month to $335/tonne, with the new-crop projection down $15 to $320.
Old-crop all wheat ending stocks are estimated at 3.98 million tonnes this month, down from 4.3 million in April, with new-crop stocks up 100,000 tonnes to 5.8 million. The month-over-month drop in old-crop stocks is due to heavier exports and domestic use, while a larger new-crop production estimate of 35.75 million tonnes (versus 34.32 million in April) helped to lift the ending stocks estimate for 2023-24.
Durum ending stocks for 2022-23 were trimmed 20,000 tonnes this month to 480,000 tonnes, while new-crop stocks were unchanged from April at 800,000. The old- and new-crop durum price estimates were steady from last month at $450 and $410/tonne.
