Canada’s barley crop is expected to remain virtually unchanged from a year ago despite a sizeable decline in average yields, while oat production is forecast to fall more than 20%, according to Statistics Canada’s first production estimates for 2026.
Released Wednesday, the StatsCan report put the 2026 national barley crop at 9.713 million tonnes, down just 0.1% from 9.725 million tonnes in 2025. The crop would remain relatively large by recent standards, although below the 10.741 million tonnes produced in 2020 and 10.383 million tonnes in 2019.
Meanwhile, the 2026 oat crop is forecast at 3.031 million tonnes, down 22.7% from 3.92 million last year.
In its August supply-demand estimates, Agriculture Canada put the 2026 barley crop at a much smaller 9.1 million tonnes, and the oat crop at 2.94 million.
The national barley yield is forecast at 72.9 bu/acre, down 8.2% from the record 79.4 bu in 2025. However, the impact of lower yields is expected to be almost entirely offset by expanded acreage. Harvested area is projected to rise 8.8% to 6.121 million acres from 5.627 million, while seeded area increases to 6.779 million acres from 6.136 million.
Amid heavy Prairie rainfall, however, the latest weather-related damage may not be fully reflected in Statistics Canada’s model-based estimates.
Alberta, Canada’s largest barley-producing province, is forecast to produce 5.113 million tonnes, down 3.8% from 5.313 million tonnes last year. The average yield in the province is expected to fall sharply to 71.6 bu from 80.7.
In Saskatchewan, barley production is projected to increase 9.6% to 3.861 million tonnes, supported by a 13.1% increase in harvested area. Average yield is estimated at 75.8 bu, down from 78.2 last year.
For oats, the average Canadian yield is expected to ease to 94.7 bu/acre from 98.1, while harvested area plunges 19.9% to 2.076 million acres from 2.591 million. Seeded area also falls to 2.545 million acres from 2.996 million.
In Saskatchewan, oat production is estimated at 1.352 million tonnes, down from 1.763 million, with the average yield falling to 94.3 bu from 101.
Alberta production is forecast at just over 709,000 tonnes, down from 876,000 in 2025, although yield is expected to improve to 90.8 bu from 86.4.
In Manitoba, oat production is projected at 661,584 tonnes, down sharply from 953,856, while yield slips to 115.4 bu from 116.5.
