Canadian barley production is estimated slightly lower this year, with oats a bit higher.
Statistics Canada model-based production estimates released on Thursday put this year’s national barley crop at 7.991 million tonnes, down almost 2% from the previous year’s 8.143 million. If accurate, it would be the smallest Canadian barley crop since 2017 at 7.891 million tonnes, excluding the drought-reduced 2021 crop of 6.983 million.
Meanwhile, oat output is expected at 3.392 million tonnes, up 1% from the 2024 crop of 3.357 million, and the largest since 2022 at 5.226 million.
In updated supply-demand estimates released earlier this month that also incorporating modelling, Agriculture Canada put the 2025 Canadian barley crop at 8.3 million tonnes, with oats at 3.395 million.
The expected decline in barley production is due to a smaller harvested area, down 6.7% to 5.517 million acres, the lowest since 2017, StatsCan said. On the other hand, the average barley yield is estimated at 66.5 bu/acre, up from 63.2 bu last year and the highest since 2022 at 70.4 bu/acre.
Alberta is expected to produce more barley, rising by 3.6% to 4.381` million tonnes because of sharply higher yields (+14.6% to 69.4 bu/acre). In Saskatchewan, barley production is anticipated to decrease by 7.8% to 2.798 million tonnes because of lower yields (-4.8% to 61.8 bu/acre) and harvested area (-3.2% to 2.079 million acres).
Saskatchewan oat production is estimated at 1.526 million tonnes, up from 1.469 million in 2024 and the highest since 2022 at 2.567 million. The increase is due to a higher yield in the province, pegged at 91 bu/acre. That’s up from 86.5 bu a year earlier and is the highest since 2020 at 91.4 bu. On the other hand, oat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected at 1.088 million acres, down from 1.102 million last year.
