Agriculture Canada has revised its 2025-26 canola ending stocks forecast higher from last month amid a larger carryin from the previous year.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released late Friday afternoon, Ag Canada pegged 2025-26 canola ending stocks at 2.5 million tonnes. That is up 300,000 tonnes from the August estimate and about 900,000 higher than a year earlier.
Ag Canada’s September supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Sept. 9 grain stocks report, which showed total national canola stockpiles as of July 31 – ending stocks for the 2024-25 crop year – at 1.597 million tonnes, down by more than half from the 2023-24 stocks level of 3.225 million. However, that was still above Ag Canada’s projection in August of just 1.181 million.
Using the larger 2024-25 ending stocks number from StatsCan, Ag Canada is estimating the total 2025-26 canola supply at 21.726 million tonnes this month, compared to 21.381 million in August and 22.595 million a year earlier.
The government’s September supply-demand estimates also incorporate the Sept. 17 StatsCan crop production report, which put this year’s Canadian canola crop at 20.028 million tonnes, below Ag Canada’s August forecast of 20.1 million.
On the demand side, Ag Canada left its 2025-26 canola export and crush estimates steady from last month at 7 million and 11.8 million tonnes, respectively, versus 9.331 million and 11.412 million in 2024-25.
At $675/tonne, Ag Canada also held its 2025-26 average expected canola price unchanged from August, and little changed from $677 for 2024-25.
