Agriculture Canada has sharply increased its 2026-27 canola ending stocks forecast after incorporating the larger seeded-area estimate contained in Statistics Canada’s June 30 acreage report.
In its July supply-and-demand outlook released Monday, Ag Canada pegged 2026-27 canola carryout stocks at 2.074 million tonnes, up 768,000 tonnes from its June estimate of 1.306 million. The revision leaves projected stocks well above 1.597 million at the end of 2024-25, although slightly below the revised 2.725-million tonne forecast for 2025-26.
The increase was driven primarily by a substantial upward revision to production. Ag Canada now expects farmers to harvest 21 million tonnes of canola in 2026, up 1.8 million tonnes from the June forecast of 19.2 million although still below the previous year's 21.809 million.
The June 30 StatsCan acreage report put 2026 canola planted area at a record 23.442 million acres, up more than 1.6 million acres, or 7.3%, from the 21.839 million indicated in its March 5 planting intentions report and up 8.4% on the year. With the larger seeded area, Ag Canada raised its harvested area estimate to 23.173 million acres, compared to 21.626 million in June.
The national yield forecast was also raised modestly to 40 bu/acre from 39.1 bu last month.
The larger crop, combined with a slightly higher carry-in, lifted total 2026-27 canola supplies to 23.83 million tonnes, an increase of 1.82 million tonnes from the June estimate of 22.01 million.
Ag Canada raised its export forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 8 million, reflecting greater availability and expectations for continued offshore demand. That would be a moderate decline from a year earlier but still 6% above the five-year average. Food and industrial use, which largely represents domestic crushing, was also increased by 500,000 tonnes to a new record of 13.5 million. If accurate, that would 12% higher year-over-year and 26% higher than the five-year average of 10.6 million.
Feed, waste and dockage was revised upward by 50,000 tonnes to 200,000, taking total domestic use to 13.75 million tonnes from 13.2 million in June, 24% above the average.
Despite the much larger supply forecast, Ag Canada raised its projected average canola price by $15 to $710/tonne.
