Chicago wheat futures were rebounding in a small way on Wednesday afternoon, but heavy global supplies mean any upward momentum will be difficult to sustain.
The benchmark Chicago market is now hovering near its lowest since October (see March futures chart below) after the USDA’s monthly supply-demand update last week revised 2025-26 production higher from November for many of the world’s largest exporters, including Canada, Australia, and Argentina.
Beyond today’s price bounce, the broader fundamentals remain firmly weighted toward oversupply. The USDA projections show global wheat production for the 2025-26 crop year rising sharply, reinforcing concerns that the market will struggle to mount a sustained recovery without a significant demand shock or weather-driven supply disruption.
Worldwide wheat output for 2025-26 is now forecast at a record 837.8 million tonnes, up 8.9 million from the November estimate. Historically large harvests are estimated for key producing countries. Canada and Argentina are both estimated at new record highs, while the European Union is seen at its highest production level in a decade. Kazakhstan is forecast to post a 14-year high, and Russia is expected to have harvested its third-largest crop on record. Australia is forecast to produce its second-largest wheat crop ever, while US wheat production is pegged at a nine-year high.
Exportable supplies among major exporting countries have also increased, with combined stocks for the key global exporters now forecast at 75 million tonnes, up 2.7 million from last month.
Even with global wheat consumption projected to reach record levels across both food and feed use, supplies are still outpacing demand. As a result, 2025-26 global wheat ending stocks are forecast to climb to a four-year high at 274.9 million tonnes, reversing five consecutive years of declining inventories.
March Chicago wheat: source - Barchart
