This year’s Canadian corn and soybean crops will be slightly larger than initially forecast, despite generally warm and dry summer weather in the primary production province of Ontario.
The latest 2020 crop production estimates from Statistics Canada, released on Monday, pegged nationwide corn output at 14.02 million tonnes, up from the federal agency’s August estimate of 13.92 million and 4.7% above a year ago. Similarly, soybean production was revised up to 6.13 million tonnes from 5.96 million in August, and 1.5% above the 2019 crop of 6.04 million.
With projected national corn and soybean harvested area unchanged from August at about 3.5 million and 4.9 million acres, respectively, all the increase in production was due to slightly higher yield estimates. The average corn yield was bumped up to 159.4 bu/acre from 158.2 in August, and well above 147.2 bu in 2019, while the soybean average was raised to 45.9 bu/acre from 44.6 bu in August and just 39.6 bu a year ago.
As for Ontario, the average corn yield raised was revised up to 160.8 bu/acre from 159.6 in August and 158.4 bu last year, pushing total production to 8.79 million tonnes compared to 8.73 million in August and 8.64 million in 2019.
Soybean production in the province is now forecast at 3.71 million tonnes, compared to 3.6 million last month and just barley above 3.7 million a year earlier. The average yield in the province is seen at 48 bu/acre, versus 46.1 bu last month and 44.1 bu a year ago.
Today’s model-based production estimates were based on remote sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources. StatsCan’s August production estimates were notable in that they were derived from satellite technology, rather than a direct farmer survey as in the past. The change, StatsCan said, was to eliminate contact and alleviate stress on farmers during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Manitoba corn production is estimated at 1.34 million tonnes in today’s report, little changed from 1.31 million in August but above 1.18 million in 2019. The average yield, estimated at 149.2 bu/acre, is up from 146 bu in August and well above just 109.7 bu in 2019.
At 1.17 million tonnes, Manitoba soybean production is up from 1.15 million in August and up from 1.12 million last year. The average yield is estimated at 38 bu/acre, compared to 37.3 bu last month and 29.2 bu a year ago.
As for Quebec, corn production is projected at 3.7 million, unchanged from August but above 3.36 million in 2019. The average yield is estimated at 163.1, also unchanged from last month. The soybean crop in the province is pegged at 1.19 million tonnes, also steady from August, with the average yield at 49.8 bu/acre.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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