US all wheat area will decline this year, with a steeper-than-expected fall in winter wheat acres offsetting increases in spring wheat and a big jump in durum.
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report on Thursday pegged total American wheat acres for 2024 at 47.49 million, down 4% on the year but still slightly above the average pre-report trade guess of 47.3 million and topping the 47-million acre estimate released at the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.
National winter wheat area was shown in today’s report at 34.13 million acres, down from the USDA’s January estimate of 34.42 million and now 7% below the previous year. The winter wheat planted area estimate also came in the low end of pre-report trade guesses that ranged from 34 million to 38.4 million acres.
On the other hand, US producers are expected to plant 11.3 million acres to other spring wheat this year. That is up 1% on the year and easily topped the average trade guess of 10.9 million. At 2.03 million acres, durum area is seen jumping 22% from last year, blowing away the average trade estimate of 1.65 million.
The Chicago and Kansas City winter wheat futures were up between about 5 and 11 cents/bu this afternoon, while spring wheat futures were 3-5 cents lower.
In the primary spring wheat and durum state of North Dakota, other spring wheat intentions for this year are estimated at 5.3 million acres, down 5% from last year but still on par with 2022. Meanwhile, durum acres in the state are forecast to soar 22% to 1.1 million acres. Montana durum acres are expected sharply higher on the year as well, up 21% to 850,000.
In the largest production state of Kansas, winter wheat acres for harvest this summer are pegged at 7.7 million, up 200,000 from the January estimate but still 5% below last year. In contrast, winter wheat acres in the Soft Red states of Michigan and Ohio declined from January. Michigan winter wheat area is now seen at 420,000 acres, down 10,000 from January and 30% below 2023. Ohio acres were trimmed 20,000 from January to 530,000, a drop of 18% from last year.
