Early supply-demand projections from the USDA suggest supplies of all three primary crops – corn, wheat, and soybeans – will remain heavy, with little in the way of price improvement in 2026-27.
Released Thursday morning as part of the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the projections assume normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development and will be further updated in the government’s first official new-crop supply-demand estimates released in May.
Combined acreage for the three crops is projected at 224 million acres — a decline of less than 1% from last year’s final plantings. With acreage only modestly lower and trend-line yields assumed, the outlook from USDA points to another year in which large supplies continue to cap price potential across the major U.S. row crops.
Corn
U.S. corn production for 2026-27 is projected at 15.755 billion bu, down about 7% from the previous year as planted area declines. Corn acreage is forecast at 94 million acres, down 4.8 million acres from 2025, reflecting weaker relative returns compared to soybeans. The average yield is pegged at 183 bu/acre, down from last year’s record high 186.5 bu.
Despite the smaller crop, total corn supplies remain ample at 17.9 billion bu, down from the record 18.6 billion in 2025-26 but still historically large due to higher beginning stocks. Total corn use is forecast to fall about 2% year over year, led by lower exports and reduced feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 3.1 billion bu, down 200 million from 2025-26, as South American competition expands and global demand growth remains modest.
Ending stocks are forecast at 1.837 billion bu, down 290 million from the current estimate for 2025/26, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling to 11.4%. While tighter than a year earlier, stocks remain above the five-year average. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20/bu, up a dime from the prior year.
Soybeans
Soybeans are the clear acreage winner in the early outlook. Planted area is forecast to rise by nearly 4 million acres to 85 million as producers respond to stronger profitability and crop rotation needs. Yields are projected at 53 bu/acre, unchanged from 2025, pushing production up 188 million bu to 4.45 billion. With higher beginning stocks, total soybean supplies are forecast to increase about 5% from 2025/26.
Domestic use is led by continued growth in soybean crush, which is forecast to rise 85 million bu to 2.655 billion. Strong demand for soybean oil and meal underpins the increase, although meal prices are expected to remain flat year over year at $300/short ton due to ample global supplies.
Soybean oil use for biofuel is projected to rise sharply to 17.3 billion pounds, up 2.5 billion from the prior year. This reflects assumptions tied to the EPA’s proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes, which favour domestically produced biofuels using U.S. feedstocks. The soybean oil price is forecast to increase to 58 cents/lb.
Exports are projected to recover to 1.7 billion bu, up 125 million from 2025-26, following a sharp decline this past year due to Chinese tariffs and intense South American competition. While exports improve, U.S. global market share is expected to continue its long-term erosion as Brazil’s record production extends export pressure into the U.S. harvest window. Ending stocks are forecast at 355 million bu, nearly unchanged from the previous year’s 350 million, with the season-average farm price projected at $10.30/bu, up 10 cents from 2025-26.
Wheat
The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026-27 features lower production but little improvement in the overall balance sheet.
Total planted area is projected at 45 million acres, down 300,000 from last year, with harvested area estimated at 36.6 million acres. Yield is forecast at 50.8 bu/acre, down 5% from last year’s record of 53.3 bu, resulting in production of 1.86 billion bu, a 6% decline year over year.
Higher beginning stocks partially offset the smaller crop, leaving total supplies down 2% at 2.91 billion bu. Total use is projected slightly lower at 1.98 billion bu, with domestic food use edging higher but exports slipping to 850 million bu, down 50 million from 2025-26. Strong early-season competition from Argentina and Australia, along with steady exportable supplies from Russia, the EU, and Canada, is expected to limit U.S. export gains.
Ending stocks are projected at 933 million bu, virtually unchanged from a year earlier (931 million) and the highest in seven years. With the stocks-to-use ratio holding near 47%, the season-average farm price is forecast at $5/bu, 10 cents higher than in 2025-26 but still reflective of a well-supplied global wheat market.
