Heavier export demand is eroding old-crop Canadian barley stockpiles.
In its latest monthly supply-demand update on Thursday, Agriculture Canada lowered its 2025-26 barley ending stocks forecast by 250,000 tonnes from April to 1.05 million tonnes. If accurate, that would be the tightest barley ending stocks since 2022-23 at 708,000 tonnes.
Canadian barley exports for 2025-26 are seen at 3.9 million tonnes this month, up 200,000 from the April estimate and almost 1 million above the year-earlier level.
In other supply-demand changes, Ag Canada lowered barley industrial use by 100,000 tonnes from April to 219,000, while feed, waste and dockage increased to 6.144 million tonnes from 6.094 million.
This month’s supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s May 6 grain stocks report, which pegged national barley stockpiles as of March 31 at 3 million tonnes. That was unchanged from a year earlier and the result of “a notable increase in total supply offset by remarkably strong demand,”
particularly for exports, during the first eight months (August 2025 – March 2026) of the crop year, Ag Canada said in its accompanying commentary.
Specifically, domestic feed use for that period increased by 14% to 4.94 million tonnes, domestic industrial use rose sharply by 215% to 160,000, and total exports grew by 47% to 2.95 million. In terms of export destinations, China remained the largest market for feed barley, representing over 60% of total shipments, followed by Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S., Ag Canada said.
Despite the smaller old-crop carryin, estimated new-crop barley ending stocks were left steady from April at 700,000 tonnes, with projected exports seen 1 million tonnes lower from 2025-26 at 2.9 million tonnes.
The average old- and new-crop barley prices are estimated at $285 and $295/tonne this month, up $5 and $10 from April.
