The outlook for global food commodity markets remains broadly favourable, with cereal production expected to stay historically high in 2026/27 despite retreating from record levels, according to a new report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
Released Thursday’s the FAO’s latest Food Outlook forecasts global cereal output at 2.982 billion tonnes in 2026, down 2% from the previous year. Ample inventories are expected to support supplies, although consumption will continue to grow and per-capita cereal use in low-income, food-deficit countries is projected to decline 0.4%.
Despite the relatively comfortable supply outlook, the FAO warned that risks are increasing. The emergence of El Nino, geopolitical tensions, uncertain trade policies and volatile energy and fertilizer markets could quickly disrupt production and food access, it said.
Global fertilizer trade fell between 20% and 25% during the first four months of 2026 compared with a year earlier. Although prices have recently eased, concerns remain about delayed buying in Europe and North America and potential shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the FAO said.
“Agrifood systems appear robust at a production level, but risks are growing and many of them have the potential to have rapid and adverse effects for global supply and access,” said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero in a release. “We need to double down on resilience by keeping trade flows open and supply chain functioning, while preparing for local weather shocks.”
Wheat production is forecast by the FAO to fall 3.8% to 810.9 million tonnes, reflecting smaller crops in several major exporting regions. The U.S. is expected to see a 21.3% decline, while production is also anticipated to fall in Australia and the European Union.
World coarse-grain output is projected to decrease 1.2% to 1.619 billion tonnes due to lower acreage and yields in North America. South American prospects appear stronger, particularly for Argentine corn.
Soybean production, meanwhile, is forecast to reach a record 432.3 million tonnes in 2025/26 as expanding output in Brazil and Russia offsets declines in Argentina, India, and North America.
Other commodity markets present a mixed picture. Global meat production is expected to increase 1% to 391.3 million tonnes, led by a 2.5% gain in poultry, while beef output is forecast to decline. Vegetable oil consumption is expected to outpace production, reducing global ending stocks for a third consecutive season.
The global food import bill reached a record US$2.22 trillion in 2025, up 7.9%, driven largely by higher prices for coffee, cocoa, spices, animal products, fish, fruits and vegetables.
