Projected 2026-27 durum and all-wheat ending stocks were little changed in July compared with a month earlier, as higher yield expectations offset the lower planted area estimates contained in Statistics Canada’s June 30 acreage report.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Monday, Agriculture Canada forecast 2026-27 durum production at 6.042 million tonnes, up from 5.796 million in its June outlook. The increase comes despite durum seeded area being reduced to 5.86 million acres from 6.38 million acres last month. On the other hand, the durum yield forecast was raised to about 39 bu/acre, from roughly 36 bu last month.
Durum supplies are projected at 7.047 million tonnes this month, down slightly from the June estimate and 8% below the previous year, as the 2025-26 carryin was lowered 300,000 tonnes from June to 1 million. Projected 2026-27 durum exports were reduced to 5.15 million tonnes from 5.3 million last month, reflecting pressure from large global supplies, particularly in major importing regions such as North Africa.
The bottom line was a 100,000-tonne reduction from June in expected 2026-27 durum ending stocks to 1.2 million tonnes.
For wheat excluding durum, seeded area was cut to 19.64 million acres from 20.36 million acres from last month, but the yield forecast increased to about 56 bu/acre, from 53 bu. Production was consequently raised to 29.217 million tonnes from 28.802 million, although it would still be down 11% from 2025-26.
Non-durum wheat exports remain forecast at 23.2 million tonnes. Although 1% below the current crop year, shipments would remain 14% above average amid strong global demand for high quality, high protein spring wheat. At 5.5 million 4.3 million tonnes, respectively, non-durum ending stocks for 2025-26 and 2026-27 were held steady from June.
Total 2026-27 wheat seeded area is estimated at 25.51 million acres, down from 26.74 million acres in June. Production was raised to 35.26 million tonnes from 34.598 million, while ending stocks are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes, only slightly below June’s 5.6 million and down 1 million from 2025-26.
