IGC Global Wheat Production Forecast Up Sharply 

The International Grains Council raised its 2022-23 world wheat production estimate sharply higher in its latest monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday. 

Citing larger crops in Russia, Australia, and Canada, the IGC now sees worldwide wheat output for this year at record large 792 million tonnes, up a hefty 14 million from its August estimate and 10 million above the previous year.  

Russia wheat production saw the largest month-over-month increase, up nearly 6 million tonnes from last month to 93.4 million tonnes. Canadian output was raised 1.7 million tonnes to 34.7 million and Australia was up 1.2 million to 32.2 million. Despite severe drought this summer, EU production was revised higher as well, up to 133.3 million tonnes from 132 million in August. Ukraine output was boosted as well, up more than 2 million tonnes to 21.5 million. 

The increase in the global wheat production estimate more than enough to offset an 11-million tonne reduction in the worldwide corn production estimate from last month to 1.168 billion tonnes, down from 1.219 billion the previous year.  

With the increase in the global wheat crop, total world grains production for 2022-23 (wheat and coarse grains) is projected at 2.256 billion tonnes this month, up 8 million from August but still down from 2.291 billion in 2021-22. 

With the global consumption outlook little changed from August, as well as larger than previously estimated carry-in stocks and the upgraded production figure, total grains ending stocks for 2022-23 are estimated at 587 million tonnes, up 10 million from August but still down 18 million from last year. 

The IGC said year-over-year grain consumption is forecast to decline for the first time since 2015-16, down 1% from the previous year amid reduced demand for corn for feed, while growth in food and industrial use is projected to be slower than average. 

The IGC trimmed its 2022-23 global soybean production estimate by 2 million tonnes from August to 387 million, but that remains up 10% from last year and a new high. Ending stocks are seen at 53 million tonnes, up 1 million from last month and 44 million in 2021-22. 

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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