Amid rising disease and drought stress in parts of the southern hemisphere, the International Grains Council has cut its 2023-24 world corn production estimate.
In its Grain Market Report Thursday, the IGC lowered its estimate of world corn output by 4 million tonnes from the previous month to1.223 billion tonnes. However, that is up from 1.163 million a year earlier.
Argentina’s corn crop has been badly ravaged by corn stunt disease, with the country’s Rosario grain exchange last week hacking its production estimate by 6.5 million tonnes to 50.5 million. In comparison, the IGC now has the Argentine corn crop at just 41.4 million tonnes, while the USDA put the crop at 55 million in its April supply-demand update.
Dryness has also impacted the 2023-24 Brazil safrinha crop, although conditions have turned more favourable recently.
Despite the production cut, the IGC left its corn demand estimate unchanged from last month at 1.212 billion tonnes, with projected 2023-24 ending stocks reduced 5 million tonnes from March to 289 million – up from 278 million in 2022-23.
Meanwhile, the IGC left its 2023-24 global wheat production estimate unchanged from March at 789 million tonnes, down from 803 million a year earlier, but raised demand by 3 million to 806 million. With the increase in demand, world wheat ending stocks were lowered by an identical amount to 264 million, versus 281 million in 2022-23.
Total world grains production for 2023-24 (wheat and coarse grains) is pegged at 2.301 billion tonnes this month, a drop of 3 million from March but still up from 2.266 billion a year earlier. Projected ending stocks are down 8 million tonnes from last month to 591 million, compared to 600 million in 2022-23.
World soybean production for 2023-24 is seen at 390 million tonnes, unchanged from March and up from 375 million a year earlier. At an estimated 67 million tonnes, world soybean ending stocks are up 1 million from last month and well above 58 million in 2022-23.
For the 2024-25 marketing year, the world grains outlook is slightly tighter compared to last month's initial projections. In addition to a smaller carry-in, the total grains production forecast is cut by 10 million tonnes to 2.322 billion tonnes, predominantly due to a smaller US corn figure, but with total output still seen at a new peak. Despite a scaled-back outlook for consumption, mainly for US feed/residual use, ending stocks are reduced 9 million tonnes to 592 million, fractionally above a year earlier.
