The International grains Council has lowered its 2024-25 world grains production estimate from last month, mainly due to downgrades in expected EU output.
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report, the IGC estimated world total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.315 billion tonnes, down 6 million from last month but above the 2023-24 projection of 2.299 billion and still a new record high.
World wheat production for 2024-25 was dropped 2 million tonnes from July to 799 million, with EU output seeing the sharpest monthly fall – down almost 4 million tonnes to 124.8 million. If accurate, that would represent a decline of 8.3 million tonnes or 6.2% from the previous year’s crop of 133.1 million. France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, has been battered this year by unrelenting rain, while portions of the German crop have been hit hard by rain as well.
The IGC also cut its outlook for Canada’s wheat crop, dropping it to 34.9 million tonnes from 35.8 million in July. Canada has had the opposite problem as the EU, with a promising start for the crop in the spring negatively impacted by a turn to hot, dry weather in some parts of Western Canada.
US wheat production for 2024-25 is now forecast by the IGC at 53.9 million tonnes, down from 54.7 million in July, while expected Argentina output was cut 500,000 tonnes to 18.4 million.
On the other hand, Ukraine wheat production was raised 1 million tonnes from last month to 25.4 million, with Kazakhstan seeing an identical increase to 16 million. Projected Russian wheat output for 2024-25 was left steady from last month at 81.8 million tonnes, well down from 91 million the previous year.
With production falling and expected demand up 1 million tonnes from last month to an estimated 803 million, 2024-25 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 266 million tonnes this month, down 3 million from July and below the 2023-24 forecast of 270 million. Ending stocks for the major wheat exporting countries were also lowered from July, down 4.2 million tonnes to 59.1 million, versus 59.9 million for 2023-24.
In other changes in today’s report, the IGC raised its 2024-25 world corn production forecast by 1 million tonnes from last month to 1.226 billion tonnes, while the global soybean outlook was lifted by 4 million tonnes to 419 million.
Total world grains ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 581 million tonnes, down 5 million from July and 6 million below a year earlier.
