The International Grains Council has boosted its 2023-24 world wheat and corn production estimates from last month, with ending stocks creeping higher as well.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged global corn output at 1.223 billion tonnes, up 4 million from the October forecast and above 1.161 billion the previous year. Wheat production was bumped 2 million tonnes higher from last month to 787 million, although still below the previous year’s 804 million.
Much of the increase in the corn production estimate was due to better-than-expected yields in the US, the IGC said, with the American crop now seen at 387 million tonnes, versus 382.7 million in October. Ukraine production was revised higher as well, up 800,000 tonnes to 28.8 million.
The upward revision in wheat production was linked to larger expected crops in the Black Sea region and Turkey. Russia wheat production was lifted 1 million tonnes from October to 90 million, while the Ukraine crop was increased to 28.7 million tonnes from 27.4 million. On the other hand, the Argentina wheat crop – which has been hit by drought – was downgraded to 14.7 million tonnes from 15.6 million a month earlier.
World corn ending stocks for 2023-24 are estimated at 285 million tonnes this month, up 2 million from October and 10 million above last year. Wheat ending stocks increased 1 million tonnes from last month but are still down 17 million year-over-year.
With the larger corn and wheat crops, total global grains output for 2023-24 (wheat and coarse grains) is estimated 2.295 billion tonnes, up 3 million from October. At 585 million tonnes, total grains ending stocks are also up 3 million from last month but 13 million below a year earlier.
As for soybeans, an already large 2023-24 world crop is now expected even larger. The IGC estimated the crop at 395 million tonnes this month, up 2 million from October and way up from 367 million the previous year.