The International Grains Council has raised its 2026-27 world total grains production and ending stocks forecasts from August, although a tighter corn outlook partly offsets improved expectations for wheat and barley.
In its September update released Thursday, the IGC pegged global total grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.42 billion tonnes, up 4 million from its August projection but still 74 million below the record high 2.494 billion produced in 2025-26.
Global grain consumption was left unchanged from August at 2.444 billion tonnes, down 4 million from last season. With production still falling short of use, 2026-27 world ending stocks are expected at 608 million tonnes, up 2 million from August but 24 million below 632 million in 2025-26.
The IGC left its global grain trade forecast unchanged from last month at 451 million tonnes, down 16 million from 2025-26.
The wheat outlook improved this month. Global wheat production for 2026-27 is now forecast at 820 million tonnes, up 3 million from August, although still 25 million below last season’s 845- million tonne crop. Wheat ending stocks were raised by 3 million tonnes from August to 278 million, but remain 7 million below last year. Consumption is unchanged month over month at 826 million tonnes, 3 million above 2025-26, while trade was lowered by 2 million tonnes to 201 million, down 13 million from last season.
Projected Australian wheat production was lifted to 30 million tonnes this month from 27.7 million in August, while Argentina’s outlook was raised 500,000 to 21.7 million. Ukraine’s wheat crop was also bumped higher, up to 28.3 million tonnes from 26.7 million in August.
In contrast to wheat, the IGC tightened its corn outlook. World corn production is now forecast at 1.301 billion tonnes, down 4 million from August and 45 million below the 1.346 billion harvested last year. Corn ending stocks were cut by 4 million tonnes from last month to 289 million, 20 million below 2025-26. Consumption was trimmed by 1 million tonnes to 1.321 billion, while trade was raised by 1 million to 209 million.
Following a hot, dry growing season, the EU corn production estimate was reduced to 46.4 million tonnes from 48.5 million in August and down sharply from 60.2 million a year earlier. The American crop was also reduced, trimmed to 401.3 million tonnes from 406.7 million in August. On the other hand, Argentina’s corn crop was revised up to 69.5 million tonnes from 63 million last month but still below 71.7 million a year earlier.
For soybeans, the IGC trimmed its 2026-27 production estimate by 1 million tonnes from August to 440 million, still 9 million above last season and a record. Consumption was lowered by 1 million tonnes to 446 million, while ending stocks were cut by 2 million to 73 million. Global soybean trade was raised slightly to a record 191 million tonnes, up 4 million from 2025-26.
