The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its estimate of 2025-26 world grains production for the third straight month, with ending stocks now forecast to hit a three-year high.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged total world grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at a record 2.425 billion tonnes, up 13 million from the agency’s September projection, and now 98 million or 4% above the previous year. If accurate, it would be the largest year-over-year increase in global grains production since 2016-17. It would also mark the third straight year of expanded world production.
The IGC offset some of this month’s larger production estimate by raising its global grains consumption forecast – up 5 million tonnes to 2.4 billion – but ending stocks are still estimated 12 million tonnes higher than in September at 618 million. That is well above 593 million in 2024-25 and the highest since 2022-23 at 623 million.
Much of this year’s increase in total global grains production is due to a larger world corn crop, up 59 million tonnes from 2024-25 to 1.297 billion. However, the global wheat crop saw a substantial increase as well, rising 27 million tonnes to 827 million.
Compared to last month, world corn production was unchanged, but projected wheat output increased a hefty 8 million tonnes, the IGC report shows.
At 275 million tonnes, estimated world wheat ending stocks are up 5 million tonnes this month, and above 267 million in 2024-25. If realized, global wheat ending stocks would be the heaviest since 2022-23 at 284 million.
Global corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen at 299 million tonnes this month, up from 294 million in September. That’s also above the 2024-25 ending stocks level of 290 million and matches 2023-24 ending stocks.
Global trade in total grains is now estimated at 440 million tonnes, above the September projection of 438 million and up 16 million tonnes year-on-year, supported by stronger wheat shipments from major exporters. Rising feed demand and industrial use are also expected to contribute to expanding trade flows, the IGC said.
World soybean production for 2025-26 is estimated by the IGC at 428 million tonnes, down 1 million from September and the previous year. Ending stocks are pegged at 79 million tonnes this month, versus 83 million in September and 81 million in 2024-25. At 187 million tonnes, estimated 2025-26 world soybean trade is up 2 million from last month and 3 million above a year earlier, “boosted by Asian demand, with South American suppliers accounting for a bigger proportion of total volumes,” the IGC said.
