After hitting a record high the previous year, world total grains production will slide in 2026-27, according to a new International Grains Council (IGC) forecast.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC initially pegged total world grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.417 billion tonnes, down 53 million or about 2% from this month’s upwardly revised 2025-26 estimate of 2.47 billion.
With the decline in production, the IGC said the 2026-27 world grains supply is expected to contract for the first time in four years but could still be more than 3 billion tonnes. Meanwhile, despite an anticipated modest slowdown in consumption growth, total use is tentatively seen 17 million tonnes higher at 2.44 million.
World total grains ending stocks for 2026-27 are estimated at 609 million tonnes, a drop of 23 million from a year earlier, but still above 585 million in 2024-25.
Global wheat production for 2026-27 is seen at 822 million tonnes, down about 2.7% from 845 million the previous year, while world wheat ending stocks are projected at 276 million, a year-over-year decline of 7 million or 2.4%.
Corn output is estimated at 1.303 billion tonnes, compared to 1.32 billion a year earlier, while ending stocks are forecast to decline to 294 million from 306 million in 2025-26.
For soybeans, the IGC is projecting the 2026-27 world crop at 442 million tonnes, up 3.7% from 426 million the previous year. Ending stocks, at 79 million tonnes, are seen rising 1 million from 2025-26 but down from 82 million in 2024-25.
Today’s Grain Market Report also warned of the risks poised to agricultural supply chains – particularly for fertilizer – amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. A major producer of crude oil, the region is also a major hub for fertilizer production and trade, accounting for as much as 35% of global urea exports and up to 30% of ammonia shipments.
Although most northern hemisphere grains and oilseed producers are assumed to be sufficiently well covered heading into the spring fieldwork period, an extended crisis might affect planting decisions elsewhere later in the year, with parts of Asia and Africa especially dependent on Gulf fertilizer supplies, the IGC said.
More broadly, a prolonged disruption could lead to a revaluation of fertilizer application rates, “with possible implications for yields and crop quality,” it added.
