Larger Spring Wheat Crop Bumps Up All Wheat Output

A larger spring wheat crop has pushed 2018 Canadian all wheat production further above a year earlier.

According to Statistics Canada final crop report of the season on Thursday, this year’s nationwide all wheat crop amounted to 31.76 million tonnes, up from the agency’s model-based September estimate of 31.01 million and 6% above the 2017 crop of 29.98 million. The estimate falls just about in the middle of pre-report trade guesses that ranged from 30.4 million to 32.2 million tonnes.

The increase in all wheat production can be attributed to relatively modest increases in both the harvested area and average yield estimates compared to September. Harvested area edged up to 24.41 million acres from 24.27 million (22.19 million acres in 2017), while the average yield increased to 47.8 bu/acre from 46.9 bu/acre, although that’s still below 49.6 bu the previous year.

The durum production estimate was essentially unchanged from September at 5.74 million tonnes (up almost 16% from last year), while estimated spring wheat output was bumped up to 23.51 million from 22.91 million in September and 22.16 million in 2017. Canadian winter wheat production increased marginally from September, ticking up to 2.51 million tonnes from 2.39 million, but that remains well below the 2017 crop of 2.85 million.

At 34.8 bu/acre, this year’s average Canadian durum yield was little changed from September but down from 35.3 bu last year. The spring wheat yield, at 50.5 bu/acre, increased from 49.5 bu but also remains down from the previous year’s 52 bu average.

Saskatchewan all wheat output for this year is now estimated at 14.41 million tonnes, up from 13.76 million in September and 11.7% above a year earlier. The average all wheat yield in the province was revised up to 41.4 bu/acre from 39.7 bu in September but remains below the 2017 average of 42.2 bu.

In Alberta, all wheat production came in at 10 million tonnes, down 460,000 tonnes from the September estimate but still above the previous year’s 9.98 million. Manitoba all wheat output was reported at 4.67 million versus 4.25 million in September and 4.36 million a year earlier.

Ontario all wheat production for this year is estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, down 4.3% from last year, as the average yield in the province dropped 2.5 bu to 81.2 bu/acre and harvested area declined 1.4% to 995,000 acres.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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