US all wheat production for this year was heavier than originally expected.
The USDA’s small grains summary on Friday – the government’s best estimate to date for the 2023 wheat crop – put 2023 total American all wheat output at 1.811 billion bu, up from the previous USDA forecast of 1.734 billion and easily topping the average pre-report guess of 1.731 billion. The upwardly revised total is also now 10% above a year earlier.
A significant portion of the increase in the all wheat production estimate was due to a larger spring wheat crop, now estimated at 504.9 million bu, compared to 449.5 million previously and 482.2 million in 2022. At 1.25 billion bu, the national winter wheat crop was also revised higher, increasing from 1.22 billion earlier to 1.25 billion – and 13% above the 2022 crop. Durum was bumped 2 million bu higher to 59.3 million, although still down 7% on the year.
In terms of the two largest winter wheat classes, Hard Red Winter production is now estimted at 601 million bu, up from the previous estimate of 585 million, while Soft Red Winter was increased to 449 million bu from 413 million.
At 37.27 million acres, 2023 US all wheat harvested area was actually revised down slightly from 38.87 million previously, but the average all wheat yield was raised to 48.6 bu/acre from 45.8 bu and 2.1 bu above a year earlier.
The average spring wheat yield now stands at 46 bu/acre, compared to 41.8 bu for the earlier estimate and just slightly below 46.2 bu last year. At 37 bu/acre, the average durum yield was revised up from 35.5 bu but also still below the previous year’s 40.5 bu average. The average 2023 winter wheat yield was pegged at 50.6 bu/acre, up from the previous estimate of 48.1 bu and 47 bu a year ago.
