Canadian lentil ending stocks are poised to tighten considerably in 2019-20 – and then tighten even further in 2020-21.
In its latest monthly supply-demand outlook on Thursday, Agriculture Canada lowered its old-crop lentil ending stocks estimate by 50,000 tonnes from last month to 300,000 – less than half of the previous year. Meanwhile, estimated new-crop ending stocks were dropped to just 150,000 tonnes, down from 275,000 in April, to reflect the lower old-crop carryin and an expected smaller crop this year.
Today’s supply-demand estimates incorporate the May 7 Statistics Canada grain stocks report as well as the 2020 acreage report.
The grain stocks report pegged national lentil stocks as of the end of March at 1.1 million tonnes, down almost 25% from a year earlier and the lowest stocks level for that date since just 555,000 in 2016. To account for the smaller stocks, Ag Canada raised its 2019-20 lentil forecast by 100,000 tonnes to 2.2 million, but partially offset that by lowering domestic use.
StatsCan’s new-crop acreage report put lentil intentions for this year at 3.709 million acres, down from the 3.87 million acres seeded a year earlier and a bit below Ag Canada’s April estimate of 3.78 million. With the smaller expected seeded area, Ag Canada trimmed its 2020 lentil production estimate by 50,000 tonnes from last month to 2.15 million tonnes.
Ag Canada also tightened its old- and new-crop dry pea ending stocks estimates, with projected 2019-20 ending stocks down 25,000 tonnes from last month to 300,000 – mainly due to a higher export forecast. Ending stocks for 2020-21 were trimmed 50,000 tonnes from April to 475,000 to reflect the smaller old-crop carryin and a slightly smaller expected 2020 crop of 4.275 million tonnes.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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