The Weather Network is forecasting near- to below-normal temperatures across much of the country this winter, driven by a developing weak La Nina pattern.
While Atlantic Canada and parts of the north may see slightly milder conditions at times, the Weather Network’s preliminary winter outlook warns that “winter is not cancelled,” with significant cold spells still expected nationwide.
After an unusually warm fall that has stretched from the Rockies to the Maritimes, signs are emerging that the mild pattern will soon give way, the forecast said. October is expected to bring continued warmth interrupted by brief cold snaps, setting the stage for a sharper transition in November. Once that shift occurs, colder weather is expected to take hold and persist through much of December.
The developing La Niña will play a key role in shaping conditions. Historically, La Niña winters have split Canada, bringing bitter cold to the West while allowing milder air to dominate the East. However, weaker La Niña years — like the one forming now — have sometimes flipped the script, with frigid air instead anchoring across Eastern Canada.
As the map below shows, the Weather Network forecast suggests below normal winter temperatures for much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, along with a portion of Alberta. On the other hand, near normal readings are expected for southern Ontario and into southern Quebec.
In terms of storm activity, the dominant storm track is expected to sweep into the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley. An active storm pattern is also forecast along the British Columbia coast.
The Weather Network will release its final winter forecast on Nov. 26.
