Saskatchewan is heading into the winter with variable soil moisture conditions, underscoring the importance of adequate snowfall to replenish moisture ahead of the 2026 growing season, according to the Water Security Agency’s (WSA) Conditions at Freeze-up Report for 2025.
Released Friday, the report said eastern areas of the grain belt generally entered freeze-up with adequate to surplus soil moisture, while much of western Saskatchewan and the far north remain notably dry (see map below). There are currently no areas where WSA believes there is a heightened risk of above-normal spring runoff in 2026, the report added.
WSA cautioned the assessment provides only an early snapshot of vulnerability to spring runoff conditions, not a forecast, as winter snowfall — a critical driver of spring moisture — cannot yet be reliably predicted.
Two short snowstorms prior to freeze-up in November delivered light to moderate snowfall across the province, with heavier accumulations near North Battleford, Melville and parts of the southwest. However, those events were not enough to significantly replenish moisture in the driest regions.
At freeze-up, topsoil moisture was near adequate across eastern Saskatchewan, including areas near Yorkton, Wynyard and Humboldt, where surplus conditions were reported earlier in the fall. In contrast, short to very short moisture conditions persisted along the Alberta border and into west-central regions, including areas near Maple Creek, Swift Current, Kindersley and Lloydminster. Root zone moisture remains especially low in west-central Saskatchewan and the far north, where some of the driest conditions on record were observed at the time of freeze-up.
“Most of the province is at moderate to high risk of seeing negative impacts to surface and shallow groundwater supplies next year in 2026 as a result of drought,” the report said. “West central and east central Saskatchewan are at the highest risk.”
Lakes and reservoirs in the Qu’Appelle, Souris and Saskatchewan River basins are expected to be at or near normal levels heading into spring 2026. Inflows to Lake Diefenbaker are forecast to remain near normal through the winter, with outflows adjusted to keep the reservoir within typical operating ranges, the report said.
Looking ahead, long-range forecasts suggest slightly above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across much of the province this winter. La Niña conditions are expected to persist, a pattern that typically brings cooler and wetter winters to Saskatchewan.
With western regions entering winter dry, meaningful snowfall over the coming months will be critical to rebuilding soil moisture and supporting crop prospects next spring.
The province’s preliminary Spring Runoff Outlook for 2026 will be issued in early February.
