The latest seasonal drought outlook from the US Climate Production Center is painting a worrisome picture for this year’s Midwest corn and soybean crops.
Released Thursday, the outlook suggests drought will develop or persist from eastern Iowa and through much of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio to the end of September. Michigan and Wisconsin are also expected to be dry. (See map below). The expected dryness was the main factor in propelling corn and soybean futures to sharp gains today.
“More widespread drought development is anticipated for the central Corn Belt, Great Lakes region, (and western New York), with long range forecasts favouring below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures,” the outlook said.
The development of an El Nino event was expected to result in wetter conditions this year for the Midwest, but it seems increasingly likely the moisture will arrive later rather than sooner for crops already being stressed by drought conditions. The latest weekly US drought monitor shows almost half of the entire Midwest region (49%) was in some form of drought as of Tuesday, up from 32% a week earlier and the highest since early November 2022.
However, today’s seasonal outlook does suggest good drought improvement in parts of the central Plains through September, including in Nebraska, one of the top five corn production states.
