A warmer and generally drier fall could provide some much-needed breathing room for Western Canadian farmers after an unusually wet start to harvest.
The Weather Network, in its fall 2026 forecast released Wednesday, said above-seasonal temperatures are expected to dominate across much of Canada through the fall, with fewer classic autumn storms and a delayed arrival of persistent winter conditions.
That outlook could be especially important across the Prairies, where harvest has been off to a slow start because of overly wet conditions. Heavy rain over the Labour Day weekend brought combining to a halt across large parts of the Prairies while increasing concerns about lodging, sprouting and declining grain quality.
For Alberta, The Weather Network is calling for a warmer and drier fall overall, potentially extending the harvest window after a stormy summer left fieldwork behind schedule. Winter weather is not expected to lock in early, although early snow and hard freezes remain possible.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also expected to trend warmer than normal. Drier conditions are favoured across much of the region, although southern areas could finish closer to normal for precipitation.
Ontario is expected to share in the warmer overall pattern, although temperatures could run surprisingly close to seasonal from roughly mid-September through mid-October before the broader mild tendency reasserts itself.
The Weather Network is also forecasting below-normal precipitation across much of Ontario, with fewer classic fall storms than usual. However, it cautioned that fewer storms does not mean none, and a single major system could still have an outsized impact on the season.
The broader outlook is being influenced by one of the strongest El Nino events ever observed, which is intensifying in the tropical Pacific.
The Weather Network said El Nino should help slow Canada’s transition into winter, with mild spells repeatedly returning after periodic cold shots.
