Total Canadian wheat stocks as of March 31 were down from the year-earlier level, with durum stockpiles falling to the lowest in 35 years.
Tuesday’s Statistics Canada grain stocks report pegged national stockpiles of all wheat as of the end of March at 11.756 million tonnes, down 15.4% from the previous year but still above March 31, 2022, stocks of 11.22 million. Durum stock as of March 31 were reported at 1.651 million tonnes, 23.7% below a year earlier and the lowest since March 1989 at 1.549 million.
Canadian durum production plummeted about 30% to 4.045 million tonnes in 2023 amid unfavourably dry conditions in southern Saskatchewan. All wheat production on the other hand slipped a more modest 7% to 31.95 million tonnes as an increase in planted area helped to offset lower yields.
The stocks report implies December 2023 – March 24 durum usage of 1.29 million tonnes, down sharply from 1.89 million the previous year. However, usage will have to slow further in the March 31 – July 31 period, given that demand during the same timeframe last year amounted to 1.75 million tonnes – higher than the supply on hand. In its April supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada projected 2023-24 durum ending stocks at 450,000 tonnes.
All wheat usage for the December 2023 – March 2024 period was 8.72 million tonnes, below the 9.16 million used during the same time a year earlier. Based on last year’s March-July usage of 10.38 million tonnes, that implies 2023-24 all wheat ending stocks of 1.36 million tonnes. That is far below the Ag Canada forecast of 3.1 million tonnes, and suggests that demand will also have to slow in the last portion of the crop year.
On-farm stocks of all wheat as of March 31 were down almost 16% on the year at 8.403 million tonnes, while commercial stocks dropped 14.2% to 3.353 million. At 1.07 million tonnes, on-farm stocks of durum were about 27% below a year earlier, while commercial stocks were down 16.7% at 580,000 tonnes.
On-farm all wheat stocks in Saskatchewan as of March 31 were down 3.4% on the year to 3.96 million tonnes, while durum on-farm stocks dropped 20.7% to 852,000.
Alberta on-farm all wheat stocks as of March 31 were 30.2% lower than the previous year at 2.7 million tonnes. On-farm durum stocks in the province were down even more sharply, falling 51.7% to 188,000 tonnes.
At 1.54 million tonnes, on-farm all wheat stocks in Manitoba slipped just 4% on the year, while Ontario on-farm all wheat stocks were down a hefty 71% at just 75,000.
