Most Pulse, Special Crop Estimates Down from September

Statistics Canada revised most of pulse and special crop production estimates higher from August when it released its model-based numbers in September.

But in most cases, those higher September estimates have failed to hold up.

In its latest crop production report on Thursday – the final one for the 2018 growing season - the federal agency pegged 2018 nationwide lentil output at 2.09 million tonnes, down from the August estimate of 2.23 million and now 18.2% below a year earlier. Similarly, dry pea output was reduced to 3.58 million tonnes compared to 3.73 million in September and down almost 13% from 2017.

In both cases, StatsCan reduced its yield estimates from September, with the average dry pea yield falling to 37.2 bu/acre, down from 38.9 bu and now matching the 2017 average. The average lentil yield dropped to 1,245 lbs/acre, compared to 1,391 lbs in September and 1,287 lbs a year earlier.

At just 492,700 tonnes, flax output was trimmed from 511,100 tonnes in September and is 11.2% below last year, as the average yield was cut 0.8 bu/acre to 23 bu – still above 21.1 the previous year.

Mustard production was reduced slightly, falling to 173,700 tonnes from 175,000, although that remains above the 2017 crop of 121,600 tonnes. However, at 786 lbs/acre, the average mustard yield remains above last year’s average yield of 709 lbs.

Dry bean production saw a small decline, down to 341,100 tonnes from 345,300 in September but still above 322,400 tonnes the previous year, with the average yield easing to 22.2 cwt/acre from 22.3 cwt. Last year’s average dry bean yield was 21.9 cwt/acre.

At 57,400 tonnes, estimated sunflower production for this year was cut 1,000 tonnes from September and is down just slightly from the 2017 crop of 57,600.

On the other hand, an already massive 2018 Canadian chickpea crop got larger. StatsCan now sees this year’s crop at 311,300 tonnes, compared to 282,800 tonnes in September and just 95,600 for the previous year. The average yield of 1,579 lbs is up from 1,428 lbs in September and far above 1,317 lbs last year.

Canary output was also revised higher from September, up to 117,800 tonnes from 110,800 but still below 145,000 a year earlier.

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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