Agriculture Canada has trimmed its new-crop canola ending stocks forecast amid a more optimistic export forecast.
In a monthly supply-demand update released Wednesday, 2026-27 canola ending stocks were pegged at 1.46 million tonnes, down 200,000 from February and potentially the lowest since 2016-17 when stocks dwindled to 1.342 million.
This month’s reduction in ending stocks was entirely due to an identical-sized increase in the export forecast to 7.7 million tonnes, a hike Ag Canada attributed to “better market access” into China. Even with the increase, 2026-27 exports are still projected to fall about 6% below a year earlier.
A February agreement between Canada and China helped sharply lower China’s tariff on Canadian canola seed imports, improving access to one of Canada’s most important export markets. Ottawa said the deal would reduce the combined tariff rate from roughly 84% to about 15% starting March 1, and China’s final ruling later set the applied rate at 14.9%, a major drop expected to support roughly $4 billion in annual Canadian canola seed exports.
Today’s report incorporated Statistics Canada’s March 5 acreage report, which estimated 2026 Canadian canola planted area at about 21.8 million acres, slightly lower than Ag Canada’s February forecast of about 22 million. Regardless, Ag Canada left its new-crop canola production estimate steady from last month at 19.2 million tonnes, with an upward revision in the average expected yield offsetting the smaller planted area.
At $650/tonne, the average expected new-crop canola price was revised up $10 from last month but remains below the revised 2025-26 average of $675.
In other changes this month, Ag Canada raised its 2026-27 durum ending stocks estimate up to 1.25 million tonnes from 1.1 million in March but still below the previous year’s 1.45 million. The monthly increase reflects a larger planted area estimate from StatsCan which raised this year’s production estimate to 5.944 million from 5.668 million in February. Part of the increase in production was blunted by a 50,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 5.35 million and expected heavier domestic use.
In contrast, wheat (excl durum) ending stocks were reduced 100,000 tonnes from last month to 4.5 million tonnes – down from 5.9 million in 2025-26 – as a lower planted area estimate trimmed the new-crop production estimate by about 300,000 tonnes to just over 29 million.
Oat ending stocks for 2026-27 were lowered 50,000 tonnes from last month to 600,000 tonnes, compared to 800,000 for 2025-26.
