This year’s Canadian oat and barley crops will both be a bit bigger than previously estimated.
In an updated crop production report on Thursday – the final such report for the 2018 growing season – Statistics Canada pegged the nationwide barley crop at 8.38 million tonnes, up from the agency’s model-based September estimate of 8.22 million and 6.2% above the previous year. The oat crop was estimated at 3.43 million tonnes, versus 3.38 million in September and 3.73 million in 2017 (-8%).
Going into today’s report, trade expectations had barley production between 8 million and 8.5 million tonnes, and oats between 3.1 million and 3.4 million.
For barley, the increase in the production estimate is due to upward revisions in both the average yield and harvested area. Nationwide harvested area ticked up to 5.91 million acres from 5.82 million in September and 5.22 million last year, while the average yield increased ever so slightly to 65 bu/acre from 64.9 bu in September – still down from 69.4 bu last year.
At 2.48 million acres, oat harvested area increased slightly from 2.43 million in September, enough to offset a small decrease in the average yield to 89.7 bu/acre from 90 bu. Last year’s oat harvested area amounted to 2.59 million acres and the average yield was 93.1 bu/acre.
Saskatchewan oat production for 2018 was little changed from September at 1.6 million tonnes, down from 1.98 million in 2017, with the average yield of 90.8 bu/acre down just slightly from September but on par with last year. Estimated barley output in the province increased to 3.43 million tonnes from 3.23 million in September and 3.13 million a year earlier. The average yield was up to 62.7 bu/acre from 60 bu in September but down from 66.4 bu in 2017.
Alberta barley production came in at 3.99 million tonnes versus 4.04 million in September and 3.9 million a year earlier. At 66.8 bu/acre, the average barley yield in the province dipped from 68.7 bu in September and is down from 71.8 bu the previous year.
At 709,000 tonnes, estimated Manitoba oat output increased from 697,700 tonnes in September but remained well below 820,500 in 2017. The average yield in the province, at 103.2 bu/acre, is up from 101.1 bu in September but still below 110.8 bu last year.
Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.
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