The USDA has trimmed its old-crop US soybean ending stocks estimate, with things expected to tighten further in 2025-26.
In its first new-crop supply-demand estimates on Monday, the USDA pegged American soybean ending stocks for the upcoming marketing year at 295 million bu, 55 million below this month’s downwardly revised 2024-25 ending stocks estimate, and well below the average pre-report trade guess of 382 million.
At 350 million bu, old-crop soybean ending stocks dropped 25 million bu from last month in response to a 25-million bu increase in the export forecast to 1.85 billion.
With US soybean planted and harvested area projected down 4.1% and 3.9%, respectively from last year to 83.5 million and 82.7 million acres, the USDA sees 2025 American soybean output at 4.34 billion bu, down a modest 0.6% on the year, based on a stronger average yield estimate of 52.5 bu/acre, compared to 50.7 bu last year. Total supply is estimated at 4.71 billion bu, down just slightly from 4.734 billion in 2024-25.
US soybean demand for 2025-26 is set at 4.415 billion bu, up slightly from 4.384 billion a year earlier. The new-crop soybean crush is projected at 2.49 billion bu, up 70 million from the 2024-25 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance and exports. Exports are forecast at 1.815 billion bu, down 35 million from 2024-25.
The USDA’s initial forecast of global soybean production for 2025-26 is 426.8 million tonnes, up 1% on the year, with higher production for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and China partly offset by lower production for the US, Canada, Argentina, Ukraine, and Uruguay. Brazil’s soybean production is projected at a record 175 million tonnes, up 6 million from the prior year. Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 48.5 million tons, down 500,000, as area shifts from soybeans to corn.
Brazil and Argentina soybean production for 2024-25 was unchanged from last month at 169 million and 49 million tonnes, respectively. However, exports for Argentina were revised up to 4.5 million tonnes from 4.2 million, while Brazil exports were raised 1 million tonnes to 105.5 million.
China’s 2024-25 soybean imports were lowered to 108 million tonnes from 109 million in April. For 2025-26, China’s soybean imports are seen rising to 112 million.
Global soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 season are pegged at 123.18 million tonnes, an increase of 700,000 from last month. For 2025-26, world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million.
The 2025-26 US season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.25/bu, compared with $9.95 in 2024-25. The soybean meal price is forecast at $310/short ton, up $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 46 cents/lb, up 1 cent from the prior year.
Soybean futures were trading 19-27 cents higher this afternoon.
