Agriculture Canada has lowered its old- and new-crop ending stocks estimates from last month for durum and wheat.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released late Friday afternoon showed durum ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 at 1.3 million tonnes, down from 1.45 million and 1.35 million in May. Meanwhile, old- and new-crop wheat (excl durum) ending stocks were trimmed to 5.5 million and 4.3 million, compared to 5.9 million and 4.5 million last month.
For durum, much of the tighter old-crop ending stocks estimate is due to a 100,000-tonne increase in the export forecast to 5.6 million, along with slightly heavier expected domestic use. On the new-crop side – in addition to the smaller old-crop carryin – Ag Canada also reduced its 2026 production estimate, dropping it to 5.796 million tonnes from 5.944 million in May due a reduction in harvested area.
Old-crop wheat (excl durum) exports were similarly raised 100,000 tonnes from last month to 24.4 million tonnes, with total domestic use also revised higher, up to 7.686 million.
As with durum, Ag Canada trimmed its new-crop wheat production forecast from last month, down to 28.802 million tonnes from 29.070 million in May mainly due to a small reduction in harvested area, along with a slight cut in the average yield estimate.
Ag Canada’s average old- and new-crop durum price forecast was unchanged in June at $280 for both, while the 2026-27 wheat (excl durum) price was lowered $5 from May at $295. The 2025-26 price was steady from last month at $265.
