Following weeks of dryness and intense heat, this weekend may bring hope for improved planting conditions in US Hard Red Winter country.
A looming rain event, projected to last until mid-next week, is poised to bring anywhere from about ½ to nearly 2 inches of moisture spanning from northern Nebraska through eastern Colorado to northern Texas. Large portions of Kansas, the No. 1 US winter wheat production state, could see amounts of 1 inch or more. Cooler temperatures are also in the forecast.
In addition to providing much-needed moisture for the start of the winter wheat planting season, the rainfall may be even more important given the US Climate Prediction Center’s long-term outlook for the southern Plains (along with the Midwest) is for drought development or persistence throughout the September-November period (see map below).
Almost 70% of Kansas was being impacted by some form of drought as of early September, down only modestly from about 73% at the same time a year ago. Along with Kansas, large portions of eastern Nebraska, as well as northern and eastern parts of the Dakotas and southwestern Colorado are also witnessing significant dryness.
Still, the coming rainfall event won’t solve all the regions dryness problems. For newly planted winter wheat to thrive, follow up moisture will be critical.
According to Tuesday’s USDA crop progress report, just 1% of the American winter wheat crop was in the ground as of Sunday, a couple of points behind the five-year average. Most of the winter wheat crop is typically planted by early November.
