Season Average Price Projection for Wheat Highest in History 

The USDA’s season average price forecast for 2022-crop wheat is the highest in history, with corn and soybeans also up from a year earlier. 

In its first domestic and international supply-demand estimates for the upcoming 2022-23 crop year, the USDA on Thursday pegged the average price of new-crop wheat at US$10.75/bu. If accurate, it would mark a new all-time high, shattering the previous record of $8.02 set in 2008.  

Meanwhile, the average 2022-23 corn price is forecast by the USDA at $6.75/bu, up 85 cents from this year’s estimated total and the highest since $6.89 in the Midwest drought year of 2012-13. The average soybean price is seen at$14.40/bu, 9% above the forecast for 2021-22 of $13.25. 

Along with various weather problems around the world, the war in Ukraine is tightening global wheat supplies, with the USDA projecting that country’s 2022-23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tonnes, down 11.5 million from a year earlier. With production down, Ukraine is projected to export just 10 million tonnes of wheat, versus 19 million in 2021-22. 

Total new-crop global wheat production is forecast at 774.8 million tonnes, 4.5 million lower than in 2021-22, as smaller crops in Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco are only partly offset by expected increases in Canada, Russia, and the US.  

The global ending stocks-to-use ratio for wheat in 2022-23 is expected at 33%, down slightly from 34% for the current year and the lowest since 2014. 

For corn, the USDA puts the 2022/23 world ending stocks-to-use ratio at 9.3%, down from the current year’s estimated 9.6%, and the second lowest since 2012. On the other hand, the global soybean ratio is projected at 6.8%, above the estimated 5.3% ratio for 2021-22. 

Source: DePutter Publishing Ltd.

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