The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has identified South and Southeast Asia as one of the major agricultural risk zones for the developing El Nino cycle.
Using 41 years of satellite imagery, the FAO mapped where strong El Nino events have historically caused the greatest drought stress to crops and pasturelands. The Asian risk zone stretches from Pakistan and India through Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam, and farther east into the Philippines, Indonesia and Timor-Leste.
India is a concern because El Nino can weaken the country’s summer monsoon, which supplies essential moisture for rainfed crops during the main growing season. The monsoon also typically boosts soil moisture reserves for the winter rabi crop, which includes lentils and peas.
A poor Indian rabi growing season could increase import demand and support international prices, although changes in domestic production, inventories and government trade policy would also influence purchasing decisions.
Indonesia is another key agricultural market exposed to El Nino-related dryness. The country is the world’s largest palm oil producer, meaning prolonged drought could reduce yields and tighten global vegetable oil supplies. Lower palm oil output could provide support to competing oils, including soybean oil and canola oil, depending on the severity and duration of the weather pattern.
Elsewhere, the FAO sees elevated drought risks across Southern Africa, particularly Namibia and Botswana, with threats extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar.
Parts of the Sahel, Central America’s Dry Corridor and the Caribbean are also considered vulnerable, especially where conflict, poverty and existing food insecurity have reduced the ability of households to absorb crop or livestock losses.
Officials said the maps can identify risks at a highly localized level, allowing governments to direct agricultural assistance before rainfall shortages develop into failed harvests and broader food emergencies.
